What you need to know about the “super-committee”

As Washington, DC, careens into another month of high stakes budget work – including another possible shutdown battle at the end of the month – the biggest unknown is the deficit reduction “super-committee” (officially, the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction).

Every client meeting we’ve had this week has gotten around to the super-committee. Given the interest and uncertainty around this beast, we’re turning over this week’s three things to consideration of what’s most important to understand about what super-committee will do, how they might be influenced, and why it matters.

What is the super-committee and what’s it doing?

The super-committee is a group of twelve members of congress evenly divided along party lines and between Representatives and Senators. They are responsible for putting together a package that makes at least $1.5 trillion in debt reduction over the next 10 years. Seven of the 12 members of the super-committee must agree to a plan, which will be fast-tracked for an up or down vote in both houses of Congress, with no allowances for amendments.  The plan will pass with a simple majority. If the plan is approved by Congress, the debt ceiling can be increased by the same amount as debt reduction they pass.

The super-committee can meet its $1.5 trillion target through spending cuts, tax increases, and entitlement reforms. If the super-committee fails to come up with a package that meets the mandate (or if the package doesn’t pass) automatic spending cuts of $1.2 trillion over the next decade will be triggered and scheduled to begin to take effect in January 2013.  Those cuts will be split 50-50 between defense and domestic programs.

The super-committee must vote on a package by November 23rd and report to congress by December 2nd. If a simple majority of the super-committee passes the plan, Congress must vote on it by December 23rd.

Where will they find $1.5 trillion?

While the super-committee has the full range of options on the table – spending cuts, tax increases, and entitlement reforms are all fair game – no one expects they’ll pass anything that includes tax increases. If they pass a package, it will likely be a mix of spending cuts and changes to Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security (things like raising the retirement age or reducing benefit amounts), or exclusively spending cuts.

How the package will work is unclear.  While the super-committee has the authority to delve into specific programs, most expect that they’ll stick to broad categories like defense, education, environment, etc.  Think agency-level categories. If the plan passes, the standard committees will determine the specific program cuts within the broad categories.

Should you root for the super-committee to succeed or fail?

It depends.

The automatic cuts triggered by failure will be draconian and split evenly between defense and non-defense programs.  WIC, education, environmental, and other discretionary programs will be severely cut.  Social Security, Medicare, and Food Stamps will be spared, and Medicaid mostly protected.

Tax subsidies are also exempt from the automatic cuts. That means oil and gas subsidies, along with subsidies for homeowners, retirement savings, business start-ups, etc. will remain in place.

And/but: the automatic cuts won’t go into effect until January 2013, and Congress can change the rules before the cuts go into effect.

If you care about the poor, the environment, infrastructure, education or any of the other myriad discretionary spending programs (and if you’re reading this,  you probably do), you’re in a tough spot. You should root for the super-committee to succeed because that’s your best immediate shot at protecting your priority from the deepest cuts.  But know that if education programs are spared (as an example), it will be at the expense of other program areas that you and those you work with probably care about.

That said, if the super committee fails, it throws the whole process to the usual suspects on appropriations and other committees and you have another chance to fight for your priorities.  You might also join forces with other interests to urge Congress to change the rules before January 2013, but you’d be fighting to have them change the same rules they agreed to in the first place, and likely in the context of another budget and/or debt ceiling crisis. Again: a tough spot.

Can you influence the super-committee?

Maybe.

Reporting on the all-in lobbying by K street, agencies, and other usual suspects is abundant – an indication the best-connected, most influential think they can move the super-committee.

Also, some super-committee members have sent out calls for input from groups representing particular interests, like education or the environment.

There are only twelve members, so organizing to be in front them is a lot easier than your usual organizing might be, and you can argue in broad brush, big picture, themes – protecting education is protecting our future! – versus small bore programmatic details.

The hardest part might be coming to terms with the notion that you – and any members of your coalition or partners that you hope to enlist in the effort – will be competing with other priorities for a share of the pie. Given the reality that new revenue is almost certainly not on the table (the Republican members of the super-committee have said as much), it’s likely a zero sum game – if you win on your priority of protecting poverty programs, it’s likely at the expense of education programs (or something else as worthy).  If you’re working in any broad coalitions, this truth might make it difficult for you to step onto the field for this battle.

So what should you do?

Give us a call or shoot us an email if you’d like to talk it through – 202.683.8465 or ten.nilgnenull@ofni.